Playoff hopes are down to the wire for the second straight season
Hello Courage Country!
With the 1-2 home loss to San Diego, the NC Courage are one spot below the postseason cutoff line, with only two matches remaining in the regular season.
Before I get too deep into analysis, I wanted to mention we have great interview with new Courage forward Gianna Paul on this week’s podcast, out tomorrow!
The Courage faced a tough road this year, with more turnover than any other team and a new head coach, along with the departure of star player Manaka Matsukubo midseason. They’ve also contended with losing both starting center backs to injury, as well as right winger Payton Crawford and forward Ally Schlegel.
In some ways, the fact that the team is contending for a playoff position – and could finish as high as 4th on the regular-season table – is a testament to their resilience and ability to buy into the vision of head coach Mak Lind.
On the other hand, the Courage boast more goals than any other team in the NWSL, and might become the first team in league history to have reached that mark and still miss the playoffs. Forward Ashley Sanchez is leading the golden boot race, and Evelyn Ijeh has put up 11 goals on her own. The only other team to have the golden boot winner and miss the playoffs was Sky Blue FC (now Gotham FC) in 2017, when Sam Kerr won the award.
With all that firepower, plus late-season momentum from newcomers Paul and Erica Meg Parkinson, missing the playoffs might feel like a tough pill to swallow for Courage fans.
We’ll recap the San Diego match, give a preview of Portland, and a breakdown of playoff scenarios below.
What we learned: Courage v. San Diego
Give aways and long pass accuracy remain an issue
At just 4’, San Diego stole the ball and worked quickly in transition through the midfield. Lia Godfrey got a pass to Melanie Barcenas, who kicked a long, sailing strike for an early goal, albeit with a lucky bounce off the far post.
The relative inexperience of new players showed in late season form
Paul showed moments of brilliant play, including a perfect cross to left back Feli Rauch, whose strike bounced off the woodwork at the start of the second half. Just minutes later, however, San Diego’s Perle Morroni managed to poke the ball away from Paul to another defender. San Diego worked through the midfield via Gia Corley, who broke the Courage back line with a long kick. Breakout star Trinity Byars chipped keeper Kailen Sheridan for a second goal.
Lind immediately subbed out Paul for Bia Gomes, who brought a different flavor to the attack, and again showed excited moments in the attack. Still, Gomes also had moments of passing the ball to nobody or running into defensive trouble.
The right wing lacks a veteran in the injured Schlegel, leaving the Courage vulnerable to top-of-the-table teams like San Diego, who are healthy and showing playoff form.
A shoutout to fresh faces
One silver lining was midfielder Vilde Bøe Risa, who nabbed her first NWSL goal. The Courage worked the ball up the right side from Ryan Williams to Parkinson, who drew three defenders toward her before sending the ball to a wide-open Riley Jackson, who then hit a beautiful cross to Sanchez.
Sanchez didn’t have a clean look, so tapped the ball to Bøe Risa for the score.
We also saw the Courage debut of defender Ella Hase, a recent acquisition from Racing Louisville. Hase played her college career at Duke, so her debut during a home match was extra special.
This is new territory for Courage fans
Just two seasons ago, when the Courage last qualified for the playoffs, they had a stout midfield and defense, but struggled in the attack to score goals.
Now the Courage have a formidable front line, again acknowledging some great work from Paul, but have holes in the midfield and are tied for third-worst in the league in goals conceded, largely attributed to midfield gaps and miscues on the back line.
The Courage have never had a losing record at home in club history, though they did post a 5-1-5 record in 2022. The best this team can do is match an even win/loss record, at 7-1-7, if they pick up a win against Denver in the final game of the regular season.
There’s a lot left to fight for: a spot in the playoffs, a winning season record (the team is 13-3-12 right now), and a win at home to preserve their dominant presence for fans at First Horizon Stadium.
Look ahead: Courage v. Portland Thorns
The Courage were a very different team when they tied the Thorns at home in April (yes, that was the one draw). The Courage are in much stronger form now, and the Thorns are struggling a bit. In their last five matches, Portland has earned a single win over Orlando, three draws and a loss.
Portland forward Sophia Wilson is serving an extended suspension following a red card for a hair pull during their Boston match, and will sit out against the Courage. Midfielder Olivia Moultrie is also out with a season-ending injury following an ACL tear in August.
Portland is 7-5-2 at home, while the Courage are 7-2-5 on the road.
This game represents a six-point swing, with Portland at 7th on the table and the Courage at 9th. Portland clinches a playoff spot with a win, so both teams will have a lot to fight for this match.
Courage playoff scenarios
- Best case: A win from the Courage would move them to 7th or 8th on the table, depending on what happens in the Seattle match, and they’d be in control of their own playoff destiny next week
- A Courage draw + Seattle loss to Utah = 8th place, still in playoff contention
- A Courage loss AND Seattle loss, would push the playoff decision to next week. The Courage would need a win or draw against Denver, plus a Seattle loss to a struggling Orlando, to help them move up
- Worst case: a Portland win andSeattle win this weekend would eliminate the Courage; they have 42 points on the table, and would not be able to catch Angel City or Utah, who currently have 46 points
Courage news and updates
- Saturday’s match marked the 4th sellout of the season at First Horizon Stadium, and 3rd highest attendance in Courage history.
- The Courage surpassed the 2025 season with a new cumulative attendance record of 114,112. There are two extra matches this season, so that record comes with one of the extra games. The remaining match against Denver will push that total even higher.
Around the league and beyond
- League-wide payoff updates:
- Gotham FC (55 points), Washington Spirit (54) and San Diego (52) remain the only teams that have clinched; also, the shield race is up for grabs for any of those three teams.
- Kansas City is close, but need a win to clinch.
- Orlando won their match against Houston last week, but still got eliminated from playoff contention.
- Denver has the toughest road, and will need to win out, plus see favorable losses, to make to the playoffs in their first season as a club.
- U.S. Soccer announced the Arthur M. Blank Crest Cup, a competition between all of the NWSL and USL-Super League clubs, with a start date TBD. The winning club receives a $1.1m prize.
That’s it for this week! As always, you can get in touch with tips, suggestions, corrections and more: contact@lionspitch.com.
Next match: Friday, Oct 23, 10:00 pm ET
North Carolina Courage v. Portland Thorns
Away
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